Save Your Writing Career from Hollywood Chaos

Another thing I want you to think about is that not every rider just like not every below the line employee is going to come back to Hollywood, when the strike is over, some won't be invited back, because one of the things that happens is when we flatten organizations, we tend to get rid of those that we didn't really want to have in our fold in the first place. But maybe we didn't have a clear way to cut ties, right. So those people might not be invited back, then you've got some people who might have been invited back, but they got a sour taste in their mouth, so they don't want to come back. And then you got those few people that might actually come back, right. So that means there might be a few opportunities for new writers, then you've got writers who aspire to be in Hollywood, and can afford to take less. Those writers are the ones that are going to be given opportunities. One of the things I want you to understand the big question is this. How do screenwriters like us connect to the people, the resources, and information that allow us to tell our stories, make powerful movies and leave the legacy that our community deserves? These are the burning questions that I'm going to explore week after week. And I want to welcome you to the script, your success podcast, Writers have been asking me offline what I think about the writer strike AI and the future of the industry. Well, here's the thing, what I'm about to tell you might make you mad, but I would rather see you mad than left behind. So I'm going to give it to you straight. Some of what I'm going to tell you is going to feel uncomfortable to hear, but I'm giving you the information that you absolutely need if you are an aspiring black writer who wants to work in Hollywood. Based on current information, we are beyond 100 days of the WGA strike. That's the Writers Guild of America. Beyond that, we know that AI is everywhere from grocery stores and emails and copywriting, art, medicine, finance, right so nobody is safe from the reaches of AI. The third thing is that insiders have been telling me that Hollywood studios, and even the major streamers that we think are making big bucks are literally hemorrhaging money. Now, I don't know how true that is. But this is just information that I'm hearing on the street show. Okay, then beyond that, and I know this for a fact to be true. Below the line workers I'm talking gaffers and grips and hair and makeup. All the support crew members that it takes to develop a television show or feature film have been put in this holding pattern, because of both the WGA strike as well as the SAG-AFTRA strike. Because both writers and actors are on strike for the first time in more than 15 years. And because both groups have gone on strike, production has pretty much halted. Now there are some smaller productions that are still being allowed. But the for the most part, everything that will be done on a major level that these people use for their bread and butter has been wiped away. And there's no telling when it's going to come back. Then just as late as August 22 of this year, the AMPTP which is the alliance of motion picture. And television producers put forth a proposal to the WGA. Now the WGA immediately shut it down saying it was disingenuous and employ for from the studios to get writers to to cave to their demands, as opposed to it being a sincere attempt to compromise and bring this strike to an end. I say all that to say, Hollywood as we know it is dead in the water, and it's gonna get a lot worse before it gets better. And here's why. Now, this isn't everything that the WGA is concerned about and trying to negotiate with a MPTP. But these are the biggest hot button topics. The number one topic of the WGA strike is residuals. So the WGA is saying that studios have changed the residual model. And writers are making pennies on the dollar, as opposed to what they really should be getting for their hard work. The second thing, which is probably a major concern for a lot of people these days, is that writers don't want to be replaced by AI. Now they're not completely opposed to the use of AI. But they will like artificial intelligence to be used as a tool to support their writing efforts, not as a replacement for their work and creativity. The third thing that the guild is looking to do is they want mandatory staffing and television writers rooms, and they are looking forward duration of employment guarantees because this is how writers make their bread and butter. And lastly, the WGA is really advocating for riding teams to receive pension and health care benefits. Now those things don't seem unreasonable. Now, that might not be an exhaustive list of concerns that the WGA has, but I can promise you. If those particular concerns are not addressed, I don't see the writer strike ending anytime soon. And that's really unfortunate for a lot of different reasons. Now, one of the first questions that a lot of people have been asking is, how did residuals become a part of the process in the first place? Well, based on the research that I did, in 1953, writers went on strike and won the contractual right to be paid residuals in place of ownership of scripts that they have written. Now, I'm really curious to know, what was the state of affairs before that 1953 writer strike. But what this did is this gave writers the contractual right to be paid a residual, meaning a portion of the monies earned every time a television program or made for TV movie was rebroadcast. So what that means in today's world is if I worked on something in 1963, and they decided to do a reboot of it, and I don't mean by by reboot, I don't mean re reshoot and all that. I mean, they decided to re air it. And it's exactly the episode that I wrote, I get paid from that. And every other writer that worked on that show would also get paid for it every single time. So think about shows like friends, Seinfeld, living, single movie show, right, all those favorites. The writers that worked on those shows will get paid every single time. Those shows are rebroadcast. Then, we've got AI and tech advancements. I have writer friends that have created trailers, full feature length films, they've created concept short films in a matter of one or two days, using different AI tools. The point of this is, AI is really changing the way that creativity happens. And I don't know that we're gonna get away from that. But like I promised, the reasons that Hollywood won't survive like it is our this. First and foremost, I talked about those below the line workers that are heavily affected by the WGA and sag AFTRA strikes. Now I'm not blaming actors or writers, I want to be really clear about that. What I'm saying is that, because actors and writers have demanded that they be treated better and gone on strike, everybody else down the road, below the line employees have no work to do, because there can be no production without a script. And there can be no production without an actor. So be really clear about that. That means that there's upstream activity, and downstream impacts. So shit rolls downhill, everybody is affected by this strike, in short, right? Okay, but here's the reality, people have to find a way to put food on the table, pay the rent, pay the lights, keep the car, no pay all this thing, right. So that's an economic disaster, my heart goes out to anybody that's affected by this strike. Below the line workers are suffering, they can't do anything to affect the outcome. And that means a lot of people across a lot of functions of our current Hollywood model are going to be forced to leave Hollywood, so that they can find work to take care of themselves and their families. Now, some of those people might choose to go the indie film production route, but I can guarantee you, a lot of that talent is gonna go into regular Degler corporate jobs, or they'll do something else freelance, and they won't touch another movie so long as they live, because this is this strike. And the length of time that is taken, is really leaving a sour taste in a lot of people's mouths. In fact, to that end, even consumers are wondering when new say New Seasons of series are coming out. And then they're realizing, Oh, shit, they're not coming out. Because until the strikes have been addressed, and they're in, nobody can produce another TV show, they can't produce another movie. So now content is also going to be affected right. Now, the second reason that Hollywood as it is is not going to survive, is because AI is not going anywhere, anytime soon. And I think both writers and studios know this. But what's happening is that while writers are fighting for the right to not be replaced by AI, we've got the major players in the game, one of them being Netflix, gearing up to make AI a major part of their business model. One of the things that Netflix did while they were in the midst of this strike, is they boasted a $900,000 ai specialist position. Now, you don't even want to imagine what that means in terms of how much content they can they can crank out and how quickly they can crank it out. Right. But the reality is this, if you doubt the impact of technology and the advances of AI, think about how we used to have cashiers in every retail store. There was no such thing as online shopping. And now 90% of what we purchase we purchase online. And when we go into physical stores, the brick and mortar stores, now we're checking ourselves out there. So scanners, Amazon has methods where you don't even have to go through anything, you just kind of scan, scan, scan, and you walk out and then your your card is charged. So my point is that cashiers also at one point thought that they were irreplaceable, right? Nobody can do what a human can do when it comes down to doing these calculations, so forth and so on. And then technology prove them wrong. Now, I'm not saying that AI can or should replace writers, but we need to be realistic about the power of technology. And not just the technology itself. But how people in positions of power are choosing to use technology, to save money to streamline processes, and so forth. And here's the thing. Oh, that's a lot, y'all. Even without AI as a tool. One thing we have to keep in mind, and Disney showed us this is that directors and producers, are storytellers, just the same as writers are. Now they may not be as good as we are. But one of the things that I have recognized is that nobody's actually looking for the great American story anymore. People just want content to consume. So they can go about their day and feel entertained, right. So remember, if they if it doesn't necessarily take a writer to create a show, that means it doesn't necessarily take a writer to make money we saw that was one division produced by Disney. And they were taught there was talk inside their studios about having director lead writers rooms, if you will, okay. Now, here's the other part about it that I don't want you to lose sight of is a really touching point, especially for black writers and aspiring screenwriters. Even when the strike ends, Hollywood is going to be a mere shell of what it used to be. But my question, then I want you to think about is, is that all bad. And where I'm going with this is that we know that for every issue, the general rightist population faces, it's a little bit tougher for writers of color for black writers. Right now, we've been seeing some recent successes. But by and large, there's a McKinsey study that came out in 2020, that shows that black people still are who keeps movie theaters and Hollywood afloat because we support movies, we support TV shows, but we are not in those boardrooms, we are not in positions of power, we are not making the main decisions. And that's going to be an even bigger issue, once Hollywood has collapsed, to address the changes that come out of the strike. And right now we don't even know how far reaching those changes are going to be. Right. That means, in addition to dealing with the disparities that black writers already face, we're going to have a landscape that's going to be even more competitive, which means they're going to be even more limitations is going to feel like even more of a crabs in the barrel kind of inexperience to figure out how to rise to the top and be seen, right. And another part about this whole Hollywood model, when it comes down to residuals, we already talked about the originals of residuals that came from an earlier strike, taking it out of Hollywood, and this is where you're probably gonna get mad, especially if you're a current writer in the WGA. I mean, no disrespect, I just like to tell things like they are. If I work for Nike, and I make a shoe design, residuals would be the equivalent of me expecting to get paid every time somebody buys that shoe, even though I was paid a salary to design it. Now, I'm not saying that's right or wrong. What I am saying is that that's the equivalent of what we're dealing with when we talk about riders and residuals, right. So every time so here's an even better example. Every time they relaunched the Jordans, right, because Jordans, it's a classic shoe, they they relaunch it with new colors, but the design is the design is the design. That would mean that every time they relaunched Jordans, the person who originally designed them should get paid again. I don't know if you agree with that model or not. But that's what residuals means. And that's what Hollywood is really kind of grinding to a halt about that. Like that's the major piece for writers. What we have to realize is that and this is my take this is maybe not what you think, but this is what I feel about it. Our bargaining power diminishes over time when we think about all the challenges that we're up against. Now, that doesn't mean that it can't happen. But here what here's what it does mean, when the right solution isn't the easy solution. those in positions of power will find a way to make things happen. We saw that in the steel industry when a lot of American steel jobs went overseas, we saw that with offshore work in the IT industry where a lot of engineering jobs and a lot of jobs that we thought could not be taken from Americans were given to those in Slovakia and Mumbai and other countries where labor costs was a lot lower. We even have virtual assistants that are in the Philippines and Indonesia, because the cost of that work inside the United States is more expensive. Now, I'm not saying it's right. What I am saying is that history has taught us what those in positions of power will do when they are pushed against the wall, and they need to make things happen. Okay, so here's the other part about it. Like I said, we got a lot of writers who would love to be in a position where they can write and just create and see their name on credits, right. One particular Facebook group that I'm a part of there are more than 20,000 writers in just that one group. And there are various talent levels. I'm talking some that have been in the industry for years, some that just wrote their first logline and don't even know how to really write a script yet. And all all levels of talent in between. Now, imagine this. What if all of those writers had a chance those who are already in Hollywood, right? What if all those writers had a chance to go take jobs to be writing in studios or getting their feature films read and produced? Right? Do you think they jumped at that chance? Or would they say no, because someone that they don't know, is disgruntled about how they've been treated in Hollywood? That's the real question that we've got to start thinking about because, and by the way, I'm not telling anybody to cross picket lines, I'm not telling anybody to become a scammer. But this is the reality that we're dealing with. Because, truthfully, speaking, I've heard many writers complained over the years that people who have gotten into the WGA, people who have made it to the top in Hollywood, kind of treat them like they're less than worthy of those same opportunities. And the writer strike first started happening, a lot of communication started coming out, especially on social media saying, support the WGA, don't cross the picket line, don't meet producers, don't sell your scripts, don't put your scripts. And if you do, then you won't be eligible for WGA membership in the future. And stand with your brothers because we're doing this for your future. heart goes out to those individuals, because we understand that unity is power. What I'm saying is that many, many people have had an experience where they were treated unkindly by writers who had made it. And then so the sentiment is, where's that energy that you would give me when you were on top of the world when you were getting paid the way you want to, you want to get paid when you were getting the writing assignments, you treated me like I didn't deserve your time a day. And they're saying things like, keep that same energy. I'm not saying I agree or disagree, I'm simply pointing out that this is what we are dealing with, in today's climate. Right. Another thing I want you to think about is that not every writer just like not every below the line employee is going to come back to Hollywood, when the strike is over, some won't be invited back, because one of the things that happens is when we flatten organizations, we tend to get rid of those that we didn't really want to have in our fold in the first place. But maybe we didn't have a clear way to cut ties, right. So those people might not be invited back, then you got some people who might have been invited back, but they got a sour taste in their mouth, so they don't want to come back. And then you got those few people that might might actually come back, right. So that means there might be a few opportunities for new writers, then you've got writers who aspire to be in Hollywood, and can afford to take lists. Those writers are the ones that are going to be given opportunities for one of the things I want you to understand that's not an abnormal business model. What happens in the corporate arena, after riffs or layoffs, is that when they began to restart the organization, they bring a few experienced people back. And they might negotiate a lower salary in a lot of cases because the market dictates that they can, that's capitalism, right? But then the other thing that happens is they start to bring in junior level talent, right? And then they build those people up, because those people costless, and those people are hungry for the opportunities. So they're open and willing to try it out and give their careers a chance. Right. This again, is what happens in the corporate arena. So my guess is that something very similar is going to happen in Hollywood. If you still with me, you might get really, really mad at me about this part. This is what a lot of people think about this is what I've heard in private conversations, but a lot of people don't say it out loud. The fact of the matter is that we don't get to decide how somebody pays us what happens is Is we see an opportunity that's presented face value. Either that opportunity works for us, or it doesn't. If it doesn't work for us, we move on, we find something that is a better alignment with our goals with our financial needs, so forth and so on. The WGA has put a lot of those elements in place. So what happens is, once you're eligible to join the union, you automatically are moved into this different echelon of earnings and rights and contractual benefits and things of that nature. The reality is that there are so many probably too many skilled writers, and filmmakers, for anybody to dig their heels in, as opposed to thinking about the long game. Right. So one of the things about negotiations is that I, I personally, have found negotiations always work better when we can find a win win, right? Does the state of the economy and the environment and all these things, all these things that I've been talking about, for the last few minutes, support? The WGA? Getting everything they want it exactly like they want? Maybe, maybe not? Does the environment and all these different factors support the ANP, TP and studios and all that, getting exactly what they want, and not giving it all to the writers and the actors? Probably less so. But the answer has to be somewhere in the middle. Otherwise, one side is always going to be fighting. And then we're going to find ourselves in this contract negotiation strike polls over and over and over right. Now, my prediction is that there will be some adjustments to the residuals model, the use of AI is definitely going to be considered it has to be because we already recognize for better or worse, it's not going anywhere. And then benefits when it comes down to healthcare benefits. And PTP, give those writers some benefits. Everybody deserves healthcare, right? writers room requirements will be reviewed. And I don't think the strike is going to end unless these things are absolutely addressed. But what it will also mean if we look at trickle down economics and history and other industries, is the end users that's us, the consumers, we are going to face higher subscription costs for the streaming services and the platforms that we want to see our content on. Why is that an issue because the traditional model of television was that we had 32nd spots 62nd spots where commercial ads were sold. That means major corporations, Nike, for Cadillac, you name it, they sold, they purchased rather, at spots, so that they could share their products and services with the with the American public or the public at large. With streaming services. Many of those platforms have commercial free models, which means you we must be willing to pay that premium to not see those ads, right. But my guess is that ads are gonna be coming into play. More and more. We've already started seeing it on peacock on Hulu, on Apple TV, so forth and so on on Macs, we're starting to see subscription cost plus commercials. Now, my guess my question is, how long will consumers accept that they have to pay to see TV and watch commercials because we've been spoiled with Netflix, you get to turn on the on the app, watch what you want to watch, no ads, binge and enjoy yourself. But Netflix and Paramount and peacock and NBC and ESPN and Disney. They can't afford to keep going at that rate. Right. The next thing that I'm imagining is going to happen though, is that movie theater costs are going to continue to rise. We already know that movie theaters are closing down we see the box office numbers are tumbling and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight. That tells me that movie goers are tired of cookie cutter movies that don't really hit the spot anymore. They're not really as engaging. They're predictable. They're, you know, in a box, kind of sad. The cat monitor right? Yes, pun was intended. So here is the opportunity for individuals that still have a desire to become a successful filmmaker or screenwriter. We can look at all of this and see that there's a silver lining to this cloud. There's a way to be made, despite the obstacles that we can see in the environment, all the things outside of our control, right. And the reason that there's an opportunity is because depending on how you look at the world, you can kind of see where you might be able to slide in again. I'm not telling you to go on Be a scammer and break the strike break the union lies. I'm not telling you to do that. But what I am saying is that there is yet an opportunity to do things like creating a brand for yourself, learning how to live beyond just on the page, right? If you can develop powerful content and learn how to market that content to an audience that loves you and becomes loyal to your shows, you can create an empire, just like Tyler Perry did, because of the business model that he created over the last 20 years, right. And others have also blazed a trail just like Tyler Perry, you can look up there dozens and dozens of examples. But this is not about those other writers. Now, that's the good, bad and ugly when it comes down to why Hollywood is dead in the water and why it's never going to look exactly like it does now or what we remember in days past. But if you are ready to carve your own future, get over the hump, find the opportunities within this chaos, then I would love to share with you a position paper that not only highlights these problems and what to do about them. But it tells you how you can build a brand, you can start to monetize your creativity. And you can do all of this whether you decide to be a part of Hollywood, or you choose to go your own route. So if you want that free position paper, click the link in my bio if you're watching this via social media, or if you're listening to this podcast, then go ahead and click show notes. So you can get that free download to talk about the state of Hollywood, how it's dead in the water and how we can still find success if we are willing to look beyond the chaos to how we can use our creativity.